Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen meet at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Groningen arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Groningen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 for Groningen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sparta Rotterdam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 64% versus Groningen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 51% | Groningen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.40 xG and Groningen 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.692 / defence 1.122 | Groningen attack 0.627 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.387. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Sparta Rotterdam games / 20 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 46% | Draw 27% | Groningen 26%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Groningen 3.85. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Sparta Rotterdam dominate the H2H record, yet Groningen are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Groningen (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Sparta Rotterdam 70% | Groningen 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 46% | Draw 27% | Groningen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.40 / Groningen 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.692 / def 1.122 | Groningen attack 0.627 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Groningen xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 0 Groningen.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 46% chance of winning, Groningen a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
Record (5 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 3W | Draws 1 | Groningen 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.63x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.64
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.37
0.98
Groningen xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
6%
15.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.98 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 17W 15D 23L from 55 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 15L across 55 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Groningen by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sparta Rotterdam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 6W 10D 11L from 27 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 10W 6D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.53 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Groningen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Groningen have gone 26W 14D 15L in their last 55 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.04 PPG; Groningen away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Groningen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 0-5 on 28 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 6, Groningen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 63%, Groningen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 56% (Groningen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 56% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 56% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Groningen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Groningen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Groningen 1-0 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.40 xG and Groningen 0.98 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Groningen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.69 / defence 1.12 against Groningen attack 0.63 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 46% | Draw 27% | Groningen 26%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 51%, Groningen 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.