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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Rotterdam and GO Ahead Eagles share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 32, as Sparta Rotterdam and GO Ahead Eagles drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.10 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 0.93 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GO Ahead Eagles outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.75 / defence 0.92 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.79 / defence 0.86, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 35% | Draw 38% | GO Ahead Eagles 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 45%, GO Ahead Eagles 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.25 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights