🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard finished level at 1-1 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.82 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.60 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.86 / defence 1.20 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 43% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 34%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 46%, Fortuna Sittard 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights