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Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.52 xG and Feyenoord 1.49 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Feyenoord outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Feyenoord attack 1.18 / defence 0.87, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 38% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 36%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Feyenoord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 47%, Feyenoord 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Feyenoord's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights