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Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Volendam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat FC Volendam 2-0 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.44 xG and FC Volendam 0.64 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.76 / defence 0.89 against FC Volendam attack 0.53 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 55% | Draw 30% | FC Volendam 15%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 46%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Volendam's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights