PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PSV Eindhoven at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Philips Stadion plays host to PSV Eindhoven versus Utrecht in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 4 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
PSV Eindhoven's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven at Philips Stadion this season: 6W 0D 1L from 7 home games — 2.57 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — PSV Eindhoven are significantly better at Philips Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Utrecht have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 64% and Utrecht 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 79% | Utrecht 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.16 xG and Utrecht 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.468 / defence 1.215 | Utrecht attack 0.783 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.302. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.468 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 PSV Eindhoven games / 14 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 58% | Draw 20% | Utrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Utrecht 4.76. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 71% | Utrecht 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 58% | Draw 20% | Utrecht 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.16 / Utrecht 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.468 / def 1.215 | Utrecht attack 0.783 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Utrecht xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht?
PSV Eindhoven 4 - 1 Utrecht.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 58% chance of winning, Utrecht a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Utrecht in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Utrecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from PSV Eindhoven's attack rating (1.47) and Utrecht's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.78x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
58%
1.71
20%
4.90
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.40
1.24
Utrecht xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
12%
8.64
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
2%
40.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.24 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.21 PPG on a 10W 1D 3L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht's form line: 8W 2D 4L from 14 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.21 PPG for PSV Eindhoven against 1.86 for Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.57 PPG from 7 outings (6W 0D 1L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Utrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 2.07 scored and 1.14 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Utrecht in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Utrecht in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 10W 1D 3L in their last 14 games (2.21 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Utrecht away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.57 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.00 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Utrecht in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 6-1 on 16 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
3
Draws
0
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, Utrecht have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Utrecht 1-6 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Utrecht?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 71%, Utrecht 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for PSV Eindhoven and 57% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utrecht in 43%; Utrecht in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 43% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 57% of Utrecht's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Utrecht tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Utrecht 4-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.16 xG and Utrecht 1.24 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.47 / defence 1.22 against Utrecht attack 0.78 / defence 1.21, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 58% | Draw 20% | Utrecht 21%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 79%, Utrecht 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PSV Eindhoven 2.21 PPG, Utrecht 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PSV Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm. Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.