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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda finished level at 2-2 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.54 xG and NAC Breda 1.13 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.57 / defence 1.10 against NAC Breda attack 0.71 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 68% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 15%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 83%, NAC Breda 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

NAC Breda's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights