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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out GO Ahead Eagles 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat GO Ahead Eagles 2-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.72 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.77 xG, a combined 4.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.34 / defence 1.08 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.11 / defence 1.19, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 58% | Draw 18% | GO Ahead Eagles 24%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 83%, GO Ahead Eagles 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights