🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Feyenoord.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Feyenoord 3-0 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.39 xG and Feyenoord 2.05 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Feyenoord landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.53 / defence 1.16 against Feyenoord attack 1.21 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 47% | Draw 19% | Feyenoord 34%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 83%, Feyenoord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Feyenoord's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.98. That form edge translated into the three points. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights