PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PSV Eindhoven at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feyenoord make the trip to Philips Stadion to face PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
PSV Eindhoven's overall Eredivisie record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Philips Stadion, PSV Eindhoven have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Philips Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — PSV Eindhoven are significantly better at Philips Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Feyenoord (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 for Feyenoord and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 50% versus Feyenoord 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 74% | Feyenoord 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.65 xG and Feyenoord 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.850 / defence 0.731 | Feyenoord attack 1.556 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.269. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.850 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.556 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. PSV Eindhoven's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 PSV Eindhoven games / 50 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 63% | Draw 17% | Feyenoord 19%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.59 | Draw 5.88 | Feyenoord 5.26. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.65 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 63% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 50% | Feyenoord 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 63% | Draw 17% | Feyenoord 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 71% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.65 / Feyenoord 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.850 / def 0.731 | Feyenoord attack 1.556 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Feyenoord xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
PSV Eindhoven 3 - 0 Feyenoord.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 63% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 19% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord?
Record (6 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 2W | Draws 3 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.85x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 2.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.56x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
63%
1.58
17%
5.72
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.09
1.44
Feyenoord xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.72
17%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
7%
14.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
1%
73.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.44 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PSV Eindhoven come into this having played 50 games, going 43W 4D 3L for 2.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.38 PPG from 50 outings (36W 11D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.66 PPG for PSV Eindhoven against 2.38 for Feyenoord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PSV Eindhoven's home form reads 23W 1D 0L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.46 points per game from 24 outings (18W 5D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 3.34 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.64 scored and 0.88 conceded. PSV Eindhoven's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Feyenoord in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 43W 4D 3L in their last 50 games (2.66 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 36W 11D 3L in their last 50 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Feyenoord away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.92 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.46 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 0-4 on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PSV Eindhoven
3
Draws
1
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 6, Feyenoord have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 79% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 46%, Feyenoord 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for PSV Eindhoven and 67% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Feyenoord in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 67% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Feyenoord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Feyenoord 3-0 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.65 xG and Feyenoord 1.44 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Feyenoord landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.85 / defence 0.73 against Feyenoord attack 1.56 / defence 0.84, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 63% | Draw 17% | Feyenoord 19%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 74%, Feyenoord 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Feyenoord's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PSV Eindhoven 2.66 PPG, Feyenoord 2.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PSV Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.