🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

PEC Zwolle and Willem II meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

PEC Zwolle (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Willem II away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — PEC Zwolle register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Willem II in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for Willem II and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 3–2 with PEC Zwolle winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Willem II — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 61% and Willem II 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 59% | Willem II 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.58 xG and Willem II 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.961 / defence 1.046 | Willem II attack 0.785 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.286. Data: 49 PEC Zwolle games / 15 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 49% | Draw 25% | Willem II 25%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 4.00. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 70% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights