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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Telstar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat Telstar 4-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.45 xG and Telstar 0.90 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Telstar attack 0.72 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 50% | Draw 27% | Telstar 23%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 52%, Telstar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.19 PPG, Telstar 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights