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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PSV Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat PSV Eindhoven 3-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.04 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.99 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.73 / defence 0.98 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.50 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 59%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a PEC Zwolle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 56%, PSV Eindhoven 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.63 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights