PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours NEC Nijmegen (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PEC Zwolle face NEC Nijmegen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to Mac3Park Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Mac3Park Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at Mac3Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. NEC Nijmegen are 0.60 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, NEC Nijmegen in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, NEC Nijmegen have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to PEC Zwolle's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
It is worth noting that NEC Nijmegen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 67% and NEC Nijmegen 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 61% | NEC Nijmegen 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.24 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.819 / defence 0.940 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.197 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.723. Data: 37 PEC Zwolle games / 36 NEC Nijmegen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 53%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | NEC Nijmegen 1.89. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 60% | NEC Nijmegen 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Mac3Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.24 / NEC Nijmegen 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.819 / def 0.940 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.197 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.723 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.94
NEC Nijmegen xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Mac3Park Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Mac3Park Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 24% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (8 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 3 | NEC Nijmegen 5W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.82x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.20x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
The sample (37/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
24%
4.24
23%
4.26
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.18
1.94
NEC Nijmegen xG
4.24
24%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
3%
29.45
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.94 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 10D 17L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NEC Nijmegen's form line: 17W 11D 8L from 36 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, NEC Nijmegen are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — PEC Zwolle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 7W 6D 4L from 17 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 2.28 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; NEC Nijmegen in 83%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 17W 11D 8L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.47 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
6
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
From 9 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 0, NEC Nijmegen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 47% for PEC Zwolle, 88% for NEC Nijmegen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PEC Zwolle) and 65% (NEC Nijmegen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of PEC Zwolle's games and 88% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 65% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat PEC Zwolle 1-3 at Mac3Park Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.24 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.94 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.20 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 53%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 61%, NEC Nijmegen 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.