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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.09 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.73 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.62 / defence 1.05 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 52%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 46%, NEC Nijmegen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.14 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights