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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as NEC Nijmegen defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat PEC Zwolle 0-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.72 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.11 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 52% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 24%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a NEC Nijmegen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 57%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.04 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights