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Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Heracles 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 1-0 at IJsseldelta Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.44 xG and Heracles 1.02 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Heracles landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Heracles attack 0.81 / defence 1.51, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 66% | Draw 22% | Heracles 12%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 54%, Heracles 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Heracles's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.15 PPG, Heracles 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights