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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GO Ahead Eagles cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PEC Zwolle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GO Ahead Eagles beat PEC Zwolle 0-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.49 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.41 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.81 / defence 0.88 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.14 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 39% | Draw 25% | GO Ahead Eagles 36%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual GO Ahead Eagles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 42%, GO Ahead Eagles 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.24 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GO Ahead Eagles win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights