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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PEC Zwolle and GO Ahead Eagles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle and GO Ahead Eagles finished level at 1-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.17 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.88 / defence 0.89 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 43% | Draw 28% | GO Ahead Eagles 29%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 55%, GO Ahead Eagles 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.08 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights