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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen and Twente share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen and Twente finished level at 3-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.07 xG and Twente 1.59 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Twente outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.38 / defence 1.02 against Twente attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 21% | Twente 30%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 65%, Twente 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Twente's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.30 PPG, Twente 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Twente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights