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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen and Telstar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 32, as NEC Nijmegen and Telstar drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.32 xG and Telstar 1.32 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.11 / defence 1.14 against Telstar attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 57% | Draw 24% | Telstar 19%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 67%, Telstar 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.48 PPG, Telstar 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights