NEC Nijmegen 3-1 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 5W 3D 2L at Goffertstadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
PSV Eindhoven arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to PSV Eindhoven, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–4 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 58% versus PSV Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 52% | PSV Eindhoven 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.14 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.149 / defence 0.831 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.710 / defence 0.628. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.388. PSV Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.628 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.710 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 NEC Nijmegen games / 60 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 21% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 56%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | PSV Eindhoven 1.79. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 70% | PSV Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 21% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.14 / PSV Eindhoven 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.149 / def 0.831 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.710 / def 0.628 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.97
PSV Eindhoven xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
NEC Nijmegen 3 - 1 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 21% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 5W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.15x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 0.63x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.71x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
21%
4.79
23%
4.33
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.11
1.97
PSV Eindhoven xG
4.79
21%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
14%
7.18
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
3%
34.38
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.97 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 18W 24D 18L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 46W 9D 5L from 60 games, 2.45 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NEC Nijmegen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (10W 12D 8L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 20W 6D 4L from 30 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.83 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 18W 24D 18L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 46W 9D 5L in their last 60 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.40 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.20 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 4-0 on 16 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
7
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 2-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for NEC Nijmegen, 60% for PSV Eindhoven — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for NEC Nijmegen and 73% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 60% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 73% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PSV Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat PSV Eindhoven 3-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.14 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.97 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.15 / defence 0.83 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.71 / defence 0.63, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 21% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 56%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a NEC Nijmegen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 52%, PSV Eindhoven 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.