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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out PEC Zwolle 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat PEC Zwolle 2-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 3.33 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.39 xG, a combined 4.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.34 / defence 0.99 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.96 / defence 1.48, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 75% | Draw 13% | PEC Zwolle 12%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 69% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 68%, PEC Zwolle 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.42 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights