NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Groningen travel to Stadion de Goffert to take on NEC Nijmegen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 2W 6D 2L at Stadion de Goffert — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEC Nijmegen at 1.30 PPG versus Groningen's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 3 for Groningen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Groningen trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 84% and Groningen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 74% | Groningen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.54 xG and Groningen 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.915 / defence 0.987 | Groningen attack 1.211 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.749 / away 1.888. Groningen have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 2.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 NEC Nijmegen games / 43 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 25% | Draw 23% | Groningen 52%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Groningen 1.92. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 90% | Groningen 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion de Goffert • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 25% | Draw 23% | Groningen 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.54 / Groningen 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.915 / def 0.987 | Groningen attack 1.211 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.749 / away 1.888 • Poisson stance: Groningen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Groningen xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stadion de Goffert.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 2 Groningen.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion de Goffert.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 25% chance of winning, Groningen a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
Record (8 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 4W | Draws 1 | Groningen 3W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
25%
4.04
23%
4.36
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.80
2.26
Groningen xG
4.04
25%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
10%
9.54
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
3%
38.56
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.26 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 18W 15D 10L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 18W 8D 17L from 43 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.60 PPG, Groningen on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 9W 3D 9L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.63 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 84% of their recent games; Groningen in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 18W 15D 10L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while Groningen have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Groningen away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.52 PPG; Groningen away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
NEC Nijmegen
2
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
From 9 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, Groningen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NEC Nijmegen at 86%, Groningen at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for NEC Nijmegen and 48% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 62% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 48% of Groningen's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Groningen tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Groningen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion de Goffert, Regular Season - 10, as NEC Nijmegen and Groningen drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.54 xG and Groningen 2.26 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Groningen attack 1.21 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 25% | Draw 23% | Groningen 52%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 74%, Groningen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 84% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.60 PPG, Groningen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.