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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out GO Ahead Eagles 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat GO Ahead Eagles 2-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.66 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.26 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 43% | Draw 31% | GO Ahead Eagles 26%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 66%, GO Ahead Eagles 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.48 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights