NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion de Goffert plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 18 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion de Goffert, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fortuna Sittard are 0.50 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NEC Nijmegen register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Fortuna Sittard in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NEC Nijmegen lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 83% and Fortuna Sittard 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 74% | Fortuna Sittard 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.47 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.912 / defence 0.985 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.045 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Data: 42 NEC Nijmegen games / 42 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 29% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Sittard 45%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Fortuna Sittard 2.22. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 90% | Fortuna Sittard 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion de Goffert • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 29% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Sittard 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.47 / Fortuna Sittard 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.912 / def 0.985 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.045 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Fortuna Sittard xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Stadion de Goffert.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 2 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Stadion de Goffert.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 29% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (9 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 3W | Draws 3 | Fortuna Sittard 3W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (0.91) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (1.04x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
29%
3.40
26%
3.88
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.30
1.83
Fortuna Sittard xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
5%
21.30
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.83 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 18W 14D 10L from 42 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 19L across 42 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.26 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 9W 7D 5L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 7W 3D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.50 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Fortuna Sittard in 76%.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 18W 14D 10L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.62 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 4-1 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
NEC Nijmegen
4
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for NEC Nijmegen, 71% for Fortuna Sittard — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for NEC Nijmegen and 67% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 71% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 67% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard finished level at 2-2 at Stadion de Goffert, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.47 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.83 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 29% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Sittard 45%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 74%, Fortuna Sittard 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.62 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.