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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord finished level at 1-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.83 xG and Feyenoord 1.54 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.20 / defence 1.18 against Feyenoord attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 42% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 30%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 68%, Feyenoord 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Feyenoord's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights