NEC Nijmegen 3-4 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 1 as NEC Nijmegen welcome Excelsior to Goffertstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NEC Nijmegen haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Goffertstadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Excelsior — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Excelsior haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Excelsior have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (NEC Nijmegen) versus 1.20 (Excelsior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for NEC Nijmegen, 0 for Excelsior and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 3–0 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 50% versus Excelsior 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 41% | Excelsior 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.85 xG and Excelsior 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.967 / defence 1.190 | Excelsior attack 0.826 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.775 / away 1.302. Data: 34 NEC Nijmegen games / 34 Excelsior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 25%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Excelsior 4.00. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Excelsior 20%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.85 / Excelsior 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.967 / def 1.190 | Excelsior attack 0.826 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.775 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Excelsior xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
NEC Nijmegen 3 - 4 Excelsior.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 49% chance of winning, Excelsior a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior?
Record (2 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 1W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (0.97) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.90
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.12
1.28
Excelsior xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
4%
25.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.28 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 8W 15D 11L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. NEC Nijmegen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 20L across 34 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. Excelsior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.15 PPG, Excelsior on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 3W 9D 5L from 17 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 1W 3D 13L across 17 trips, a 0.35 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 0.94 scored and 2.09 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Pre-Season
Excelsior
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 8W 15D 11L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 9W 5D 20L in their last 34 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Excelsior away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.06 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, Excelsior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Excelsior 0-2 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 76%, Excelsior 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (NEC Nijmegen) and 53% (Excelsior).
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 35% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 53% of Excelsior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Excelsior defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat NEC Nijmegen 3-4 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.85 xG and Excelsior 1.28 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Excelsior attack 0.83 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 25%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 41%, Excelsior 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.15 PPG, Excelsior 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.59 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.