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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NAC Breda and Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NAC Breda and Utrecht finished level at 1-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.36 xG and Utrecht 1.16 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.75 / defence 0.87 against Utrecht attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 42% | Draw 27% | Utrecht 32%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 53%, Utrecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Utrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights