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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle finished level at 2-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.45 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.42 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 38% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 37%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 55%, PEC Zwolle 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NAC Breda 0.95 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights