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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NAC Breda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat NAC Breda 1-3 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.50 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.20 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 43% | Draw 28% | PEC Zwolle 29%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 55%, PEC Zwolle 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.36 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights