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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out NAC Breda 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat NAC Breda 3-4 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.22 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.55 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.69 / defence 0.88 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.24 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 30% | Draw 25% | NEC Nijmegen 45%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 50%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights