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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Fri 31 Jan 2025

19:00

Venue

Rat Verlegh Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

NAC Breda Win

45%

NAC Breda

2.22

24%

Draw

4.18

31%

Heracles

3.22

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.9%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.2%

Home win

1 – 0

8.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.68

NAC Breda xG

Total xG

3.04

1.36

Heracles xG

45%
24%
31%
NAC BredaDrawHeracles

2.22

45%

Home win

4.18

24%

Draw

3.22

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

61%

BTTS Yes

1.65

39%

BTTS No

2.53

Clean Sheet

26%

NAC Breda

3.90

19%

Heracles

5.36

Win to Nil

12%

NAC Breda

8.66

6%

Heracles

17.24

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.8 6.5 4.4 2.0 0.7 0.2
1 8.0 10.9 7.4 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 6.7 9.2 6.2 2.8 1.0 0.3
3 3.8 5.1 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1
4 1.6 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1
5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.679
λ Away (xG) 1.360
Total xG 3.039
League avg home goals 1.656
League avg away goals 1.333
NAC Breda attack strength 0.877
NAC Breda defence strength 1.235
Heracles attack strength 0.826
Heracles defence strength 1.155
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 20 / 54