🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.60 xG and Groningen 1.18 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Groningen attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 47% | Draw 25% | Groningen 28%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 54%, Groningen 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Groningen's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NAC Breda 0.98 PPG, Groningen 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights