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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 2

Kick-off

Sun 17 Aug 2025

19:00

Venue

Rat Verlegh Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

NAC Breda Win

42%

NAC Breda

2.39

28%

Draw

3.57

30%

Fortuna Sittard

3.31

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.4%

Home win

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.52

NAC Breda xG

Total xG

2.78

1.26

Fortuna Sittard xG

42%
28%
30%
NAC BredaDrawFortuna Sittard

2.39

42%

Home win

3.57

28%

Draw

3.31

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.74

43%

BTTS No

2.35

Clean Sheet

28%

NAC Breda

3.53

22%

Fortuna Sittard

4.56

Win to Nil

12%

NAC Breda

8.44

7%

Fortuna Sittard

15.12

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.2 7.8 4.9 2.1 0.7 0.2
1 9.4 11.9 7.5 3.2 1.0 0.3
2 7.2 9.0 5.7 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 3.6 4.6 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.518
λ Away (xG) 1.261
Total xG 2.779
League avg home goals 1.758
League avg away goals 1.263
NAC Breda attack strength 0.876
NAC Breda defence strength 1.026
Fortuna Sittard attack strength 0.973
Fortuna Sittard defence strength 0.987
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 35 / 35