🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

NAC Breda and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 26, as NAC Breda and Feyenoord drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.22 xG and Feyenoord 1.48 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Feyenoord outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Feyenoord attack 1.01 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 30% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 42%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 51%, Feyenoord 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Feyenoord's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights