🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out NAC Breda 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.22 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.28 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 35% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 38%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 57%, AZ Alkmaar 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.57 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights