NAC Breda 2-1 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajax at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as NAC Breda welcome Ajax to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ajax have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Ajax have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 1.80 PPG versus Ajax's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Ajax in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 66%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 69% and Ajax 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 60% | Ajax 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.58 xG and Ajax 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Ajax attack 1.140 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.366. Data: 1 NAC Breda games / 35 Ajax games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 33% | Draw 25% | Ajax 42%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Ajax 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajax at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 80% | Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 33% | Draw 25% | Ajax 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG NAC Breda 1.58 / Ajax 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Ajax attack 1.140 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Ajax (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Ajax xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Ajax kick off?
NAC Breda vs Ajax kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Ajax?
NAC Breda 2 - 1 Ajax.
Where is NAC Breda vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Ajax part of?
NAC Breda vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 33% chance of winning, Ajax a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both NAC Breda and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Ajax in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Ajax (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Ajax's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
33%
3.00
25%
4.06
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.37
1.79
Ajax xG
3.00
33%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
17%
5.99
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
6%
17.96
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.79 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda come into this having played 35 games, going 15W 10D 10L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (16W 11D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.57 PPG, Ajax on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NAC Breda's home form reads 7W 6D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.14 scored and 1.74 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Ajax in 74%.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Ajax in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 15W 10D 10L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Ajax have gone 16W 11D 8L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Ajax away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.59 PPG; Ajax away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ajax have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
0
Draws
3
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Ajax?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, Ajax have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when NAC Breda 0-2 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 71%, Ajax at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for NAC Breda and 88% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 82% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of NAC Breda's games and 82% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of NAC Breda's matches and 88% of Ajax's.
Do NAC Breda and Ajax tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ajax in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat Ajax 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Ajax 2-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.58 xG and Ajax 1.79 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Ajax attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 33% | Draw 25% | Ajax 42%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 60%, Ajax 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.57 PPG, Ajax 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.