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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sun 30 Mar 2025

13:30

Venue

Asito Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Heracles Win

50%

Heracles

2.01

21%

Draw

4.80

29%

Twente

3.40

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

8.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

7.8%

Draw

2 – 2

7.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.18

Heracles xG

Total xG

3.84

1.66

Twente xG

50%
21%
29%
HeraclesDrawTwente

2.01

50%

Home win

4.80

21%

Draw

3.40

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

90%

Over 1.5

1.11

10%

Under 1.5

10.00

74%

Over 2.5

1.35

26%

Under 2.5

3.85

53%

Over 3.5

1.89

47%

Under 3.5

2.13

34%

Over 4.5

2.94

66%

Under 4.5

1.52

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

72%

BTTS Yes

1.39

28%

BTTS No

3.57

Clean Sheet

19%

Heracles

5.25

11%

Twente

8.86

Win to Nil

9%

Heracles

10.54

3%

Twente

30.17

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.1 3.6 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2
1 4.7 7.8 6.4 3.6 1.5 0.5
2 5.1 8.5 7.0 3.9 1.6 0.5
3 3.7 6.2 5.1 2.8 1.2 0.4
4 2.0 3.4 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2
5 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.182
λ Away (xG) 1.658
Total xG 3.840
League avg home goals 1.587
League avg away goals 1.326
Heracles attack strength 1.190
Heracles defence strength 1.107
Twente attack strength 1.129
Twente defence strength 1.155
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 60 / 60