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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heracles and Telstar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heracles and Telstar finished level at 1-1 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.15 xG and Telstar 1.17 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.45 / defence 1.41 against Telstar attack 0.58 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 60% | Draw 20% | Telstar 20%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 65%, Telstar 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Telstar arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights