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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles 1-3 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.22 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.37 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.91 / defence 1.28 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.36 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 18% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 63%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, PSV Eindhoven 84%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights