🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Heracles run riot with a 8-2 hammering of PEC Zwolle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heracles beat PEC Zwolle 8-2 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.72 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.18 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 8-2 for 10 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 6.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 31% | Draw 21% | PEC Zwolle 49%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, PEC Zwolle 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heracles 0.93 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights