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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heracles cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over GO Ahead Eagles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heracles beat GO Ahead Eagles 4-2 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.49 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.95 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.38 / defence 1.42 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 50% | Draw 19% | GO Ahead Eagles 31%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 65%, GO Ahead Eagles 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, GO Ahead Eagles arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights