Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.04
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.73
1.12
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Heracles and 1.12 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.