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Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Heracles 0-7 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.45 xG and Feyenoord 2.00 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Feyenoord outscored their 2.00 projection by 5.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Feyenoord attack 1.29 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 28% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 50%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 62%, Feyenoord 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Feyenoord's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights