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Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Heracles 1-4 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.38 xG and Feyenoord 1.62 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Feyenoord attack 1.32 / defence 0.78, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 32% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 42%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 61%, Feyenoord 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Feyenoord's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.34 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights