🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Heracles 0-2 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.46 xG and FC Volendam 0.92 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Volendam outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.72 / defence 1.25 against FC Volendam attack 0.58 / defence 1.17, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 46% | Draw 34% | FC Volendam 20%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, FC Volendam 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Volendam's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights