Heracles 0-0 Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajax at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajax make the trip to Erve Asito to face Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Heracles (all games): 3W 1D 5L across 9 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.11 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Erve Asito: 3W 0D 2L from 5 Eredivisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.11 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Ajax's overall Eredivisie record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Ajax are the stronger side — 1.39 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.11). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 78% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Heracles 56% | Ajax 11%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 44% | Ajax 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.02 xG and Ajax 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.930 / defence 1.114 | Ajax attack 1.185 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.369. Data: 9 Heracles games / 10 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 21% | Draw 23% | Ajax 56%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Ajax 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Heracles 40% | Ajax 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 21% | Draw 23% | Ajax 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Heracles 1.02 / Ajax 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.930 / def 1.114 | Ajax attack 1.185 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Ajax (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Ajax xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Ajax kick off?
Heracles vs Ajax kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Ajax?
Heracles 0 - 0 Ajax.
Where is Heracles vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Ajax part of?
Heracles vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 21% chance of winning, Ajax a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Heracles and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and Ajax in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Ajax (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.70 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Heracles's attack at 0.93x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.19x) against Heracles's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
21%
4.72
23%
4.34
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.83
1.81
Ajax xG
4.72
21%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
3%
28.71
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Heracles and 1.81 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Heracles come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 1D 5L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 2.44 PPG from 9 outings (7W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Heracles's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 3.56 scored and 0.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 11%.
Defensively: Ajax in 78% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Ajax in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Ajax have gone 7W 1D 1L in their last 9 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.25 PPG; Ajax away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Heracles or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Ajax in 78%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ajax have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 4-0 on 16 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
1
Draws
7
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, Ajax have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Heracles 0-3 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 50%, Ajax 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Heracles) and 25% (Ajax).
On the defensive side: Ajax in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Heracles's recent matches and 25% of Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Heracles's recent games and 25% of Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and Ajax tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ajax in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Heracles's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 11, as Heracles and Ajax drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.02 xG and Ajax 1.81 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Ajax landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Ajax attack 1.19 / defence 0.80, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 21% | Draw 23% | Ajax 56%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 44%, Ajax 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajax's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 11% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 78% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.