Heerenveen vs Willem II – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Heerenveen at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heerenveen vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Heerenveen welcome Willem II to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Heerenveen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heerenveen's home record at Abe Lenstra Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Heerenveen are significantly better at Abe Lenstra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Willem II have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Heerenveen 1.00 PPG, Willem II 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Heerenveen: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Willem II, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Heerenveen and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Willem II trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 62% versus Willem II 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 69% | Willem II 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.89 xG and Willem II 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.806 / defence 0.838 | Willem II attack 0.756 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.831. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Heerenveen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Heerenveen games / 7 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 53% | Draw 25% | Willem II 22%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 4.55. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 50% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 53% | Draw 25% | Willem II 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Heerenveen 1.89 / Willem II 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.806 / def 0.838 | Willem II attack 0.756 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.831 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Willem II xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Willem II kick off?
Heerenveen vs Willem II is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
Where is Heerenveen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Willem II part of?
Heerenveen vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 53% chance of winning, Willem II a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Heerenveen and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Willem II?
Record (5 meetings): Heerenveen 3W | Draws 2 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Heerenveen and Willem II in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Willem II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Heerenveen's attack at 0.81x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.95
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
3.05
1.16
Willem II xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
3%
30.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.16 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 16W 12D 14L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Heerenveen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II's form line: 19W 9D 14L from 42 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 1.43 PPG, Willem II on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Heerenveen have posted 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 11W 3D 6L from 20 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Heerenveen are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.48 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Willem II in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 16W 12D 14L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Willem II have gone 19W 9D 14L in their last 42 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.65 PPG; Willem II away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heerenveen and Willem II runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Heerenveen's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
2
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Willem II?
From 5 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, Willem II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Willem II 2-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Willem II?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 65%, Willem II 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Heerenveen and 65% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Heerenveen's games and 60% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Heerenveen's matches and 65% of Willem II's.
Do Heerenveen and Willem II tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Willem II in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.