Heerenveen 1-4 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Heerenveen welcome Waalwijk to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Waalwijk — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Heerenveen 1.30 PPG, Waalwijk 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Heerenveen, 0 for Waalwijk and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 52% versus Waalwijk 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 50% | Waalwijk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.46 xG and Waalwijk 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.886 / defence 1.160 | Waalwijk attack 0.766 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.182. Data: 56 Heerenveen games / 56 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 44% | Draw 32% | Waalwijk 24%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Waalwijk 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 70% | Waalwijk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 44% | Draw 32% | Waalwijk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Heerenveen 1.46 / Waalwijk 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.886 / def 1.160 | Waalwijk attack 0.766 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Waalwijk xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Waalwijk kick off?
Heerenveen vs Waalwijk kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Heerenveen 1 - 4 Waalwijk.
Where is Heerenveen vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Waalwijk part of?
Heerenveen vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 44% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Heerenveen and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Waalwijk?
Record (3 meetings): Heerenveen 1W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Heerenveen and Waalwijk in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Heerenveen's attack at 0.89x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
44%
2.28
32%
3.16
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.51
1.05
Waalwijk xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
6%
17.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.05 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 18W 14D 24L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 16W 19D 21L from 56 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 1.21 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heerenveen have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (10W 5D 13L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 4W 13D 11L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.34 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 16W 19D 21L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Waalwijk away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.25 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Heerenveen
4
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Waalwijk 3-1 Heerenveen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 61%, Waalwijk 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Heerenveen) and 54% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen have failed to score in 32% of games; Waalwijk in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Heerenveen's games and 68% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Heerenveen's matches and 54% of Waalwijk's.
Do Heerenveen and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Heerenveen 1-4 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.46 xG and Waalwijk 1.05 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against Waalwijk attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 44% | Draw 32% | Waalwijk 24%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 50%, Waalwijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.21 PPG, Waalwijk 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Heerenveen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.